I’m just back from two years In Ireland, where I made a futile attempt to have one pint in every pub in Dublin. I’ve missed a bit, but I did hear about Volcom’s quarterly conference call last Friday, the 29.4% decline in its stock that followed, the industry discussion that has ensued about the reduction in Volcom’s projected third quarter sales at PacSun, and the apparent concern over the ability of industry companies to sell their denim and other brands if PacSun was to change its branding strategy.
So I listened to the conference call. All one hour, 32 minutes, and 19 seconds of it. Moan. Volcom beat estimates for its second quarter, held to its guidance for the year, and announced what I took to be some very positive developments in new products, distribution and retail.
But Volcom reduced guidance for the third quarter from 45 to 38 or 39 cents and said it expected sales to PacSun, its biggest customer representing 29 percent of last year’s revenues, to decline in the third quarter.
When asked for some specifics about why this was happening (some “color” as the analysts call it) management just repeated the same non-specific answer about how they had a great relationship with PacSun, considered them an important customer, looked forward to a continued good working relationship with them and were all over it.
I didn’t think much of it at first, but by the fourth time they gave that answer and no details I was wondering if there was something more to this. (Apparently, judging from the stock’s performance, so does the stock market.) Is there? I have no idea. But I might have approached the issue a bit differently.
Before I tell you how, go check out a daily stock market chart for Volcom and some of the other publicly companies in our industry. Notice that many of the prices aren’t exactly up. They are kind of unup. Well, actually they are down and it’s hard to put a positive spin on that.
Is it industry related? Maybe. But the whole stock market has been in a downtrend since early April. Investors Business Daily regularly points out that three out of four stocks follow the market direction. So anybody who might be concerned that any of Volcom’s comments (or lack of comments) with regards to PacSun caused a decline in industry stocks needs to look at the longer-term trend and general market conditions as well.
If you’re a public company and the analysts think you didn’t quite provide a good answer to a question they think is important, and you reduce your guidance for the coming quarter, your stock goes down. But not, one would think, by 29 percent when you have some good news as well. If I were Volcom, I might have suggested that questions about PacSun’s brand strategy be directed to PacSun. I might have suggested that if PacSun was going to focus on brands like Levi (and its own brands for that matter—not news) that over time Volcom’s sales to PacSun might, in fact, become less important given Volcom’s distribution strategy, which they characterized (correctly, I think) as cautious. And I would have focused on all the other positive initiatives Volcom highlighted and how they might, over time, reduce the company’s dependence on PacSun.
If you’re a public company, then you are to some extent a prisoner of the quarterly filing cycle. That’s life. But it seemed to me that a reduction of Volcom sales (at least as a percentage of total sales) to PacSun could be seen as strategically positive if PacSun is changing its brand strategy in a way that’s not consistent with Volcom’s market positioning.
And (of course) if it’s not too big a reduction. No matter what your strategy is, it’s damn hard to get profit growth without an overall growth in sales.
Somehow, all the good things Volcom had to say were overshadowed by the implications of the third-quarter decline in sales to PacSun and the possibility that there was more to it than Volcom explained. I just wonder if the question couldn’t have been answered so that the decline in the stock wasn’t so dramatic.
Unless of course, there was more to it than Volcom explained.