As the Trade Show Proposition Changes, Would You Want to Own More of Them? Emerald Expositions’ Quarterly Results

As you probably know, Emerald Expositions (EE) is the owner and manager of Surf Expo, Outdoor Retailer, and now what was formerly SIA’s Snow Show.  Overall, they operate over 50 shows as well as other events.  They’ve grown by acquisition, and expect to continue to do so.  Their shows are in many industries and include the International Drone Conference and Exposition (kind of cool!), the National Pavement Expo (who knew there was one?), American Craft Retailers’ Expo, and the Digital Dealer Conference and Expo (no idea what they do there).  These, along with the Snow Show, are among their most recent acquisitions.

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Why is Back to School Shopping Slow?

 

SGB Media published an article last week called, “What’s Causing the Delays in Back-To-School Buying?”  Here’s the link to the article.  If you read the article (you should- SGB does a pretty good job), you’ll find a discussion of the factors said to be causing the delays- the usual suspects.

I’d like to offer a different point of view.  The factors they refer to are symptoms.  The overall reason it’s occurring is the condition of the economy- specifically wages.

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To Have or Not to Have Stores; That is the Question. Deckers’ June 30 Quarter

The 10-Q reads this way:

“…in light of the recent and continuing changes in the retail environment, we also believe it is prudent to further reduce our global brick and mortar footprint. We expect to continue to reduce our footprint through a combination of store closures and the conversion of owned stores to partner retail stores, and, accordingly, we anticipate generating future cost savings. We are currently targeting a worldwide retail store count of approximately 125 owned stores by the end of fiscal year 2020.”

At June 30, Deckers had 96 concept stores and 63 outlet stores for a total of 159.  These are “predominantly” UGG stores.  Getting down to 125 stores will be a reduction of 21.4%.  Some of the decline will be due to converting owned to partner stores.  Partner stores “…are branded stores that are wholly-owned and operated by third parties. Upon conversion or opening of new partner retail stores, each of these stores become wholly-owned and operated by third parties.”

One can’t help but ask why, if Deckers doesn’t want to own these stores because of “changes in the retail environment,” the potential partners will.  Perhaps that suggests these will mostly be store closures.

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Advantage Big Guys with Solid Processes and Cash Flow: VF’s Quarter

Before I dive too deep into the financial weeds, let’s look at VF’s overall strategy as explained by CEO Steve Rendle and Chief Financial Officer Scott Roe in their conference call discussing the results for the quarter ended June 30, 2017.

Strategy Stuff

Steve: “…while we expect the retail landscape to remain uncertain, we will invest against our largest growth opportunities to create momentum rather than wait for it.”

They have the cash flow and balance sheet to do this.

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One More Comment on Trade Shows, A Perspective On the “Outdoor” Industry, and Articles on Retail.

Trade Shows

Trade shows were created to bring buyers and sellers, that is brands and retailers, together to do business.  Everything else that goes on at trade shows, beneficial as it may be, has been secondary to that goal.

But there are fewer smaller retailers and fewer retailers overall.  The consensus is that the number will continue to drop (see the articles referenced at the end of this).  Larger retailers have less reason to attend, as their most important suppliers reach them outside of the trade show venue.  Meanwhile, changes in logistics, technology and the supply chain have introduced some chaos into the formerly more or less reliable buy sell cycle around which we scheduled shows.

To me, this means there’s less value in attending traditional shows.  The return on investment is harder to justify for buyers and sellers.  Meanwhile, brands and retailers are generally competitors at a greater or lesser level.  Are they perhaps a bit more cautious in how they work together and share?

What’s the result?  Neither buyers or sellers need to send as many people to trade show for as long.  Smaller booths, shorter shows, fewer attendees.  Consolidation of shows.  I haven’t had any retailer or brand tell me that putting OR together with SIA is a bad idea.  If you are one who thinks it is, I’d love to hear why.  Ultimately, I expect fewer shows though, as is always the case in consolidation, everybody will struggle to survive hoping it’s the other guy who goes away.

There will be more focus on consumers.  It’s the best way to cover overhead.  There will be some smaller, focused, curated shows.  Interestingly, it feels like there will be room for big shows and for small shows.  As usual, the ones caught in the middle will have the most trouble.  I wonder if there might somehow be some local, “popup” shows.

The fundamental reason trade shows were created has declined in importance.  A lot.  That’s the thought I want you to have top of mind as you consider the show landscape.  Given the change, how has what you get out of the shows changed?

The Outdoor Industry

Boardsport Source is a good magazine.  It’s generally thoughtful, and helps me know what’s going on in Europe.  I was looking at “The Great Outdoors SS18 Retail Buyer’s Guide” in the July issue.  I can’t find the picture on line, but in the Camping Gear section of the magazine, there was a picture of a campfire.  Nothing unusual about the fire.  But it was on some kind of curved metal grate or holder just for the fire.  Stuck into the ground next to it was a black metal pole with a couple of adjustable rods coming off it.

One of those rods held a large metal pot with a lid that was cooking something over the fire.  The other, higher up on the pole and not over the fire, held a tray with what appeared to be a coffee pot and mug as well as a plate with food on it.

So, I used to do some serious back packing.  A week to two weeks out in the back country over mountain passes carrying everything we needed on our backs.  Sometimes we caught some fish.  My “friends” let me clean them so I would be the one the bear was attracted to.

When you do that kind of camping, you are always concerned with the weight of your pack.  First, you are concerned that it is too heavy.  Later in the hike, as the food goes away and if the fish aren’t biting, you worry it’s too light.

I want you to know that none the equipment I described around the fire ever made it into any back-country camper’s pack.  Not for a minute did we consider trying, as the article says, to “bring your kitchen outdoors.”  Comfort was measured ounce by ounce, as you strove obsessively to minimize the weight of what you had to carry.  Or to put it in somebody else’s pack.

I’m not against drive up camping and having your comforts.  Certainly, rigorous backpacking isn’t for everybody.  But the picture and description of the gear made me think about the “outdoor” target market.  For the reasons I’ve described this kind of equipment specifically excludes serious backcountry campers.  Unless they have it flown in by helicopter I suppose.

The elite athletes in skateboarding, snowboarding and surfing always used more or less the same equipment the typical participant used, though of course they did things with it that most of us were never going to try.

Suddenly, in this particular case at least, that doesn’t seem to be the case.  I don’t quite know what to make of it.  Is the “outdoor” market defined as anybody who’s not “indoors?”  Is there a “core” to be connected to?  Does that matter?  Do the customers, whoever they are, care about the product or do they just take product for granted and focus on an associated experience?

What does it mean to be a brand in the “outdoor” market and how do you identify your customers?  If you think it’s everybody who’s not indoors, it’s nobody.  I guess it helps a little if you say, “active outdoors,” but it hardly solves the problem.

Perhaps, as we’ve become more and dependent on the public and private equity markets for financing, you have to define your brand’s potential in a way that at least appears to place it in a market where there’s enough growth opportunity- even if that’s destructive of the brand in the longer term.

Read These

This first article, “Over Storing America,” gives some insight into how retail got to be so overbuilt that perhaps you hadn’t thought about.

The second, called “Retail Shift,” was sent to me by a friend.  Thanks friend.  The article says:

“the market make-up has been shifting and continues to shift from a fairly homogeneous composition of primarily baby boomers into a significantly splintered compilation consisting of Gen X, milliennials, Gen Z and the boomers. Multiple sub-segments exist within each of these large segments that have their own defining characteristics. This complex segmentation is compounded by the fact that the vast majority of retail platforms today have erroneously been founded and built on the strategic premise that large homogeneous groups of people generally desire the same things.”

Both are worthy of a read.

 

Why It’s Not Just Amazon’s Fault

 

I’ve spent some years now listening to everybody bemoan Amazon’s impact on retail.  Sometimes, it almost sounds like they believe that if there was no Amazon, everything at retail would be fine.  As I’ve written, that’s not the case.  Here’s an excellent article from somebody who agrees with me.    It repeats some of what I’ve said in the past, but also puts some better numbers on the source of our retail travails.  Hopefully, I don’t think it’s excellent just because he agrees with me.

You’ll have to sign up to see the whole article, but I recommend you do.  It’s free and Vitaliy’s occasional articles are worth reading.  You can always unsubscribe.

Agenda’s Got a Consumer Agenda

As usual, the Agenda trade show, Long Beach version, was held July 13 and 14.  What was unusual was that it was followed, on Saturday the 15th, in the same space with the same brands attending, by its first consumer show.  Having no intention of spending three whole days in the Long Beach Convention Center, I arrived late Thursday afternoon.   I walked the show Friday and spent four or five hours in the consumer show Saturday.

We are all aware of the long, ongoing conversation about the changing role of trade shows, their relevance, and role.  The consensus, as far as I can determine, is 1) we need some, 2) face time is important, 3) we’re not completely sure how to improve them and 4) there are too many of them.  I applauded the combination of the SIA show with Outdoor Retailer.  Step in the right direction.

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Damn- Turns Out the Customer Is Always Right- More Than Ever Before

Running an active outdoor business right now feels like a game of Whack-a-Mole.

  • There’s too much retail- right size yours. Whack!
  • Create product that can be meaningfully differentiated from competitors. Whack!
  • Careful on that distribution. Whack!
  • Manage your inventory and expenses cautiously. Whack!
  • Figure out e-commerce without cannibalizing brick and mortar. Whack!
  • Lower growth economy. Whack!
  • Find and keep enough quality employees. Whack!
  • Most children living with their parents since 1940 (World War II fixed that). Whack!
  • Slow to non-existent wage growth among our customers. What will they/can they buy?  Whack!
  • Close to 10 million American men not in the work force and not trying to get in it. What do we sell them?  Whack!

Whack!  Whack! Whack!  Whack!

I hope to get your attention by saying that these things are pretty much tactical- or in some cases issues you just can’t influence.  What in the hell would I consider strategic then?

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A Follow-up on Pop-ups- Popping Up in Interesting Ways

In early 2015, I wrote “The Evolution of Marketing & the Future Retail Model.”  It’s held up pretty well.  In describing that retail model, I hypothesized about how pop-ups might be used.

“Retail presence might be in pop up tents, in vans or trucks, on blankets at beaches, in a lift at a ski resort, in stores, in people’s houses. No location would be permanent. You might end up with 400 stores, but none of them would be in the same place for more than, maybe, a week. Your “stores” would be wherever your customers wanted them to be.  Maybe you announce where the stores are going to be. Maybe not. Maybe there are clues online.”

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Deckers Under Pressure from Outside Investor

Marcato Capital Management has taken what is now a 6% position in Deckers’ common stock.  That Marcato was buying Deckers’ shares first became public knowledge towards the end of May.  Partly in response to this and, apparently, to growing unhappiness on the part of other large shareholders, Deckers has undertaken a strategic review process to determine what should happen to the company.

Recently, Marcato sent Deckers’ Board of Director a letter saying that if the review process didn’t lead to an attractive sale of the company, “…we will be prepared to seek significant Board change at the Company’s next annual meeting by nominating a slate of director candidates to replace the entire Board.”

Here’s a link to the letter in its entirety.  It’s pretty damning of Deckers’ management and board and, if the letter is accurate, they aren’t the only ones unhappy.  I can see why they might be concerned that Angel Martinez, the former CEO and still Chairman of Deckers, is running for Mayor of Santa Barbara rather than focusing on the company.

I guess I see this as the final denouement in the purchase and destruction of the Sanuk brand.  That might not have been the only problem Deckers has, but it’s certainly a major and public symptom of what went wrong.

If I were to read between the lines of the Marcato letter, what I hear them saying is, “Look, UGG is a great brand with real potential, but your attempts to make the company into a big footwear player by buying all these smaller brands has fallen flat on its face.  It’s cost you a pile of money, time, and focus.  Get rid of them or sell the company or we’ll come in and do it for you.”

I will be interested in watching how this moves forward.